The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has emerged as a critical component in the global strategy to curb climate change. Given the increasing urgency to meet the targets set by the Paris Climate Agreement, especially limiting global warming to 2°C and striving for the more ambitious 1.5°C, a significant expansion of CCS capabilities is deemed necessary. However, a recent study conducted by Chalmers University of Technology and the University of Bergen underscores the stark reality that without substantial advancements and initiatives, the progress in CCS may not be sufficient to meet these targets.
At its core, CCS involves capturing carbon dioxide emissions produced from various sources, including power plants and industrial processes, and storing it deep underground to prevent its release into the atmosphere. Among the various techniques of CCS, bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACCS) represent potent forms of negative emissions technologies that not only capture CO2 but also contribute to reversing the impacts of fossil fuel combustion.
Despite the promise of CCS in facilitating negative emissions and aiding in the decarbonization of high-emission sectors, its current application is alarmingly minimal. These technologies are pivotal in achieving net-zero emissions goals, serving as a bridge in the global energy transition, particularly for industries that are notoriously challenging to decarbonize.
The aforementioned study, titled “Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets,” provides a comprehensive analysis of CCS deployment prospects over the course of the 21st century. It concludes that, at best, we can realistically expect to sequester about 600 Gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide through CCS within the century—a figure that starkly contrasts with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) projections, which suggest a need for more than 1,000 Gt of CO2 capture by 2100 to keep temperature rises in check.
Tsimafei Kazlou, the lead author of the study, emphasizes the critical importance of timely and scaled implementation of CCS technology. Delaying action could drastically reduce the chances of achieving the temperature goals of 1.5°C or even 2°C. The urgency for acceleration stems from the insight that the later CCS is widely deployed, the narrower our pathway to maintaining a stable climate becomes.
As it stands, the momentum for CCS development has been spurred by favorable policy initiatives such as the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act and the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act. Predictions suggest that if current ambitions are realized, CCS capacity could increase up to eight-fold by 2030. Nevertheless, a closer examination reveals skepticism regarding the feasibility of these projections. Historical data indicates that CCS projects have historically faced failure rates approaching 90%. Should these past trends continue, the actual capacity may only reach double of current levels, which would still fall short of the necessary benchmarks for climate mitigation.
The dynamic growth trajectory of renewable energy technologies offers insights into what is required for CCS to thrive. For CCS to have a significant impact, it must achieve growth rates comparable to what we have seen with wind energy since the early 2000s and need to sustain these rates into the following decades. Such an ambitious pace is vital to align with the required cuts in carbon emissions and meet the global temperature targets. Notably, the authors suggest that even if CCS meets these growth goals, the pathway to the 1.5°C target may remain elusive.
The authors of the study emphasize that the path forward for CCS must be underpinned by robust policy frameworks and financial incentives. For CCS projects to be economically viable and gain traction, they require strong backing from governments and stakeholders. Concurrently, the study highlights the limitation of CCS in isolation—while it can capture up to 600 Gt of CO2, this underscores the need for simultaneous expansion of other clean energy technologies, such as solar and wind.
The research points to an undeniable reality: while CCS may provide a crucial part of our climate change mitigation arsenal, reliance solely on this technology will not suffice. Addressing climate change necessitates a multipronged approach that includes both rapid development and deployment of CCS alongside other renewable energies. The window of opportunity for impactful action is narrowing, and immediate, coordinated efforts are paramount if we are to secure a viable future for the planet. The coming decade will be critical, and it is imperative that aggressive action, supported by sound policies and financial mechanisms, be implemented to harness the full potential of carbon capture and storage technologies.
Leave a Reply